Monday, July 30, 2012

Big Bang Theory: Personality Affects Personal Finances


The Big Bang Theory is a hilarious hit sitcom on CBS that follows the lives of four scientists working at Cal-Tech in Pasadena, Ca. Our purpose is to see whether the two main characters, Sheldon and Leonard, could actually afford their lifestyles and habits in this very expensive area.

Do you remember the beautiful apartments from FRIENDS? Do you remember how far beyond their means the characters lived? Television producers generally don't think about the real life viability of their characters. Getting back to Big Bang Theory, the cast eats yummy takeout food every night which causes jealous mouth watering and the natural question of whether they could afford that in real life. I hope you will find the conclusions we reach satisfactory as well as relevant to your own personal finance decisions.

INCOME AND MAJOR EXPENSES

The median salary for Staff Scientist and Post-Doctoral Researcher at Cal-Tech in Pasadena is $64,682.96. (Note: Cal-Tech pays better than the average research university) Using the tax rate of 2.8% (relax this excludes Social Security, that will be addressed in expenses) demonstrated for this category in the CE, their after tax income is $62,851.32. The total rough cost of consumer expenses computed using housing data for Pasadena, CA and modified for the habits of our geeky friends is $56,824. At first glance, the data shows that it is possible to live the lives portrayed on the Big Bang Theory, but we must look deeper into the question to truly understand the situation. Below you will see just how the personalities of the Leonard and Sheldon have consequences on their finances.

First we must discuss the short-comings of the data. The majority of the data used herein comes from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics' Consumer Expenditures Survey (CE). The data reflects all 50 states. California has one of the highest costs-of-living and while location specific data is substituted wherever possible, many items remain a national average. Note the difference in housing costs from the table below. Pasadena has a very high median gross rent, so this was used to adjust housing costs. There is not a similar method to compensate for the high transportation costs in California i.e. high gas and insurance prices.

The CE Survey uses Consumer Units (CU). Most CU consist of families or at least married couples. Sadly there are not good statistics for expenditures by individuals, especially individuals sharing a rented dwelling. Sheldon would not be pleased. Leonard and Sheldon qualify as separate CU's because they are financially independent despite mutual rent and furnishings. Due to their peculiar living situation, we have picked and chosen data from different categories of expenses while ignoring others. Purists be damned, there is just not enough information and inferences have to be made. Some items are simple, such as tobacco. Neither character smokes so we can disregard that item.


EXPENSESBLS CE Survey 2009
National AverageLeonardSheldon
for all CU
HEALTHCARE315731573157
HOUSING
SHELTER98121522815228
UTILITIES366036603660
OPERATIONS100710071007
SUPPLIES612612612
FURNISHINGS146714671467
TRANSPORT767776770
APPAREL170017001700
ENTERTAINMENT250425042504
INSURANCE AND SS537353735373
GIFTS102910290
MISC EX TOBACCO423842384238
Total Before Food$42236$47652$38946

There are, however, major differences between the costs incurred between Leonard (social, dating, and more normal) and Sheldon (anti-social, defies social convention). The biggest glaring difference between the two is transportation. The average transportation cost (for all consumer units in 2009) is $7,677. This includes all the expenses relating to owning a vehicle i.e. auto-loan, insurance, gas, maintenance. The average costs of gifts given annually is $1,029. Sheldon does not believe in gifts, and other than the one gift he gave Leonard because it was a "non-optional social convention", he generally avoids gift giving. As is the general norm with Sheldon, his anti-social behaviors save him money.

The guys also spend more money on entertainment than the national average of $2,504 (per CU). Sheldon and Leonard both have expensive gaming laptops.  Sheldon has a Dell XPS while Leonard has an Alienware, which is a premium priced gaming computer manufacturer owned by Dell. They also buy lots of comic books, movies, toys, and memorabilia like the time machine prop used in the 1960's "The Time Machine" movie. Even though we can easily assume the guys spend more than the national average on entertainment, it is very hard to quantify how much more they might spend. So, as a result, we will keep the national average for entertainment.

FOOD: ALL THAT TAKEOUT!

Food cost is the most substantial way our physicist friends differ from the average household. Dinner for the workweek consists of all takeout food, save the Tuesday trip to Cheesecake Factory. Judging by the amount of food as well as the variety of dishes they order, an average cost of $15 is a fair assumption.

For example, a BBQ Burger @ Cheesecake is $11.99 plus a soda and tip is at least $15. What about pizza night? Two medium, supreme pizzas cost only $32.26 according to Kraft's DiGiorno marketing study. This splits 4 ways to only $8. We have to keep in mind that Leonard is lactose intolerant, so he probably would order a pasta. If you watch many of the eating scenes in the show, there is often an abundant variety of food. They may order out all the time, but they don't order like college kids.

We all know that lunch is taken at the Cal-Tech faculty cafeteria. After looking at menu prices for many workplace cafeterias, we think $7 is a fair assumption for cost of lunch. Lunch at work is usually a wrap, sandwich, or salad with a side and soda. To wrap up food away from home, we are left with lunch and dinner on weekends. The guys are usually busy on weekends going out and doing geeky activities so to be conservative, we can assume that they eat lunch at home and eat dinner out.


FOOD AWAY
LunchDinner
Monday7THAI: MEE KROB AND CHICKEN SATAY15
Tuesday7BBQ BURGER @ CHEESECAKE FACTORY15
Wednesday7HALO NIGHT15
Thursday7PIZZA PASTA15
Friday7CHINESE: TANGERINE CHICKEN15
Saturday?15
Sunday?15
Frequency240360
Total$1680$5400

The total cost of eating out this much is $7,080. This is astronomical compared to the norm of $2,505 (per CU). A high cost to pay for food, but also essential to maintaining such a tight group of friends. Group meals are the primary means of socialization and provide for most of the scenes in the show. 

The meals that are left to eat at home (with store bought food) are breakfast every day and lunch on weekends and holidays. Because the guys eat out so often, they spend much less at the grocery store than an average household. The norm is $3,624 (per CU) while Leonard and Sheldon would spend  just $1,680 each a year on groceries.


Food @ Home
BreakfastCostLunchCost
MealCoffee, Cereal, Juice3Sandwich, Soda, chips5
Frequency360120
Total$1080$600

The national average for alcohol expense is $412. Sheldon does not drink so it does not affect his expenses and Leonard on the other hand does drink. It would be safe to say Sheldon is the cause of Leonard's drinking.

CONCLUSIONS: BE A PARASITE

Wait! All of our expense data is from 2009. It is 2012 now and things cost more than they did 3 years ago. If we take the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) between June of 2009 and June of 2012, we get a 6.39% rise in prices. Because the CPI is a composition of a basket of goods that represent consumer expenditures, we can simply multiply the total cost we computed from 2009 by 1.0639.


Income Statement LeonardSheldon
Avg. Income64,682.9664,682.96
--------------------------
Total Expenes 20095682447706
CPI increase6.39%6.39%
--------------------------
Consumer Expenses in 2012 (60455.05)(50754.41)
--------------------------
Tax Expense(1,831.64)(1834.64)
--------------------------
Net Income$2,396.27$12,093.91

Even after correcting for inflation, Leonard and Sheldon can live their quirky, geeky, lives in Pasadena, CA. They even have some extra money to spend on comic books, gaming, and dating. The more interesting point made by the data is how much you can save by being a mooch. Sheldon's antisocial behaviors saved him $9,698 in 2012 dollars. So, finding a roommate with a car and the propensity to give into social pressure may be the best financial decision you ever make.

"I have informed you thusly." (Sheldon)

Erik Hughes is an equity analyst for Halvorson Research Associates, LLC
market commentary available every 15 days on their website:

HRA Market Commentary

Friday, July 6, 2012

Where to get? stock quotes, financial data, and live streams for stocks

Online financial data providers (FDP's) are a dime a dozen these days, so where do you go when you want to find something specific? The question appears simple at first but grows in complexity depending on what it is you want to find.

The answers are different if you crave streaming quotes and technical charting tools that are up-to-the-minute like Bloomberg Terminal or want to track your passive portfolio. Portfolio tracking ranges from free (AOL's Dailyfinance) to expensive Investment Adviser level tools like Advent Axis.

The first thing we have to think of is a stock quote. Finding a stock quote can be as simple as entering a stock symbol into a Google Search Bar. The first result will be a nice Google finance stock quote with a small daily chart. Thanks to the proliferation of online FDP's stock quotes are free and available to everyone.

So we have talked about getting stock quotes but what if you want to capture and work with market data? Yahoo Finance provides a super simple way to query stock quotes directly from an Excel spreadsheet. Query stock quotes from Excel Personally I love Yahoo Finance. It is definitely the best free financial data provider...for now.  Google Finance has been a latecomer to the group, but has been gaining loyal users lately with the flexible features and especially because it is integrated with Google Docs. Look for Google Finance and Google docs to overtake Yahoo finance and Excel in popularity over the next ten years.

The stock quote competition is pretty standardized with most providers nearing 100% validity. The same standard does not apply to earnings reports. As soon as we jump from technical data to fundamental data the free data providers start to show their colors. Most free providers get their information from third-party data vendors such as Thompson, Morningstar, and Bloomberg. Their fundamental data is a composition of what they are served from these providers, who often employ different analysts and different methods. Because fundamental data is by definition a product of previous calculations this means it is subject to statistical and accounting bias. Variance in fundamental 2nd tier data can be the product of "opaqueness, fixed formulae information tradeoffs, and coverage differences" (Abarbanell and Lehavey).

The Value Line Investment Survey (VL) follows blue-chip stocks and provides 15 years of historical fundamental data and two years of forecasts. Most FDP's only provide a few years of historical data. They employ in-house analysts and have the best (IMHO) full circle coverage on each company. I rely heavily on VL in my research and believe their earnings analysis to be top-notch.

Bundling FDP with trading/investment accounts is the trend. Scottrade, Fidelity, Ameritrade, eTrade, MerrillEdge are all examples of online brokers who are also FDP's. This setup offers a microcosm where the investor can research and trade all while staying within the scope of the provider. Trade Architect which is a trading platform offered by Ameritrade includes a commercial free web-stream of CNBC. I like to turn off the TV and turn on Ameritrade's Trade Architect for the CNBC and live streaming quotes.

 These were just some of the sources and methods available for data online. There seem to be new platforms, especially for traders, popping up every day. I will end with a summary of what I like to use, and few that I dislike. Please leave a comment with your own summary of sources you like/dislike.

SUMMARY OF WHAT I USE
FREE
  • Yahoo! Finance- definitely the best general access free source of market basics and news. Analyst coverage is thorough and consistent enough for a first look. Excel queries!
  • AOL Dailyfinance- Good organization, I like to use the market news page for Oil futures and a post close wrapup of the day.
  • Google Finance- best for a quick symbol lookup right in the Google Search Bar. I have not used portfolios in Google Finance, but for the long term I believe resistance is futile. API for developers
  • Google Reader- not for data but the best way organize many news feeds with minimal headache.
FREE WITH ACCOUNT
  • Standard and Poors- Mountains of data for drilling.
  • Ameritrade- Trade Architect great for streaming portfolios, charting, technical data, and most of all commercial free CNBC. Ameritrade website is a good source of earnings trends and quarterlies as well as financial statements that load right into the page as opposed to downloading pdf files.
  • Fidelity- portfolio tracking, bonds, etf's, no frills but comprehensive.
PAID
  • The Value Line Investment Survey- bread and butter for earnings and historical data. Splits, dividends, corrections, economic indicators, in-house analysts with quarterly company reports. Available in print at a local library.
  • HRA Stock Picks- quantitative analysis including industry charts, market under/over priced conditions, theoretical valuation, potential price increase and market commentary.
WHAT I DISLIKE
  • Advent Axis- portfolio tracking by the devil himself. Designed to keep software engineers in business until the end of time.
  • Fox Business- "The Power to Prosper" more like 'The Power to Depress'
  • Tools meant to drive the uneducated and minimally funded investor to day trading.